A Point of Confluence

Hey there, just a quick note.

Bitcoin has thus far come off its late 2022 bottom of ~$15.5k USD. At time of writing this, price is ~$30k USD. In what appears to be the inception of a new bull market, we’re also amidst a confluence of rather positive supply/demand fundamentals that have provoked our attention.

Bitcoin’s yearly issuance rate will be reduced by half in April 2024 via what is called the halving  (https://www.investopedia.com/bitcoin-halving-4843769). The amount of newly mined bitcoin will drop from current 6.25 every 10 min. to 3.125, from 328,500 to 164,250 annually, until 2028, when it’s scheduled to reduce by half again.

This, while the total circulating BTC supply at current prices suggests, as per the charts below, that not much of the supply is for sale.

Yet the scale of potential demand as per available dollar inflows has increased meaningfully. Interests across a wider spectrum of awareness & necessity are at levels Bitcoin hasn’t experienced to date. Here are just a few of the players with ~$27 trillion USD AUM that are actively working on garnering exposure to Bitcoin for clients.

Perhaps one of the most promising developments has been BTC’s growth in Africa.


Jack Dorsey, co-founder & former CEO of Twitter, co-founder of Block Inc., which focuses on helping various Bitcoin initiatives, has been diligently dedicated on expanding Bitcoin in Africa.


But all of this wouldn’t be possible if it weren’t for Bitcoin’s 14+ years of reliable uptime operation, favorable macro conditions & political/global governance environments, which are increasingly proving the merits of Bitcoin’s architecture & efficacy.

Significant progress is also being made on Bitcoin’s UX side. Scaling transactional throughput globally with less friction for users as infrastructure connectivity options continue to proliferate, lends itself to adopting a new wave of users.

VC dollars invested in Bitcoin development have also been steadily increasing to support BTC infrastructure scaling & utility. Here is just one firm exclusively focused on that. https://ten31.vc/content/100mm

In conclusion, it is my view that we sit amidst a rather unique inflection point here. One in which indicates that the scale of demand is simultaneously seeking defense against precipitous dollar devaluation & necessitated by need to escape the perils of a concerning trend-over-reaching gatekeepers. This is occurring amidst a backdrop of participants that are seemingly compelled to hold their existing bitcoin well into future.

In 2009, Bitcoin’s pseudonymous creator, Satoshi Nakamoto  wrote, “It might make sense just to get some in case it catches on. If enough people think the same way, that becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.”

Until next time, peace!

**Please note that albeit Bitcoin has a total fixed supply of 21M bitcoin, each bitcoin consists of a smaller denomination  called “satoshis” or “sats” for short (https://academy.bit2me.com/en/que-es-un-satoshi/). As prices increase, this is for transactional purposes. Therefore, you’re not obligated to spend/buy/hold 1 bitcoin, the system is designed to facilitate transactions of much less.**

Charts courtesy of- https://twitter.com/therationalroot?s=20

Image courtesy of- https://twitter.com/Melt_Dem/status/1673362112653975554?s=20 

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